2009 predictions included in this feature: Anti-monopoly; Banking & finance; Capital markets; Dispute resolution; Infrastructure; Intellectual property; M&A; Private equity; Real estate; and Recruitment

Recruitment
Frazer Xia
Founder and managing director, China Legal Career

• Good time for firms with tight budgets to upgrade their teams
• Redundancies will be minimal, but chances for pay rises will be slim

This year will see further reductions in legal recruiting opportunities. Except for a few newcomers to the market from the US and the UK, existing foreign and even local law firms will continue to cut expenses to avoid redundancies and adjust their teams in China to the right size.

A 'wait-and-see' mentality is the tone of the market at least for the first quarter of 2009. Capital markets and real estate attorneys will either be let go or retooled to work on M&A or even FDI deals if they are lucky enough to have that chance.

There are some blessings, though. For one, some clients are taking advantage of this special market situation to upgrade their teams so with the same budget they can now put a better team under their belt. Another interesting phenomenon, observed from our 20 years' experience in legal recruiting, is that partner search, contrary to common understanding, will be more active, especially for those who carry a book of business.

Attorneys in the M&A and private equity practice areas should not worry too much about losing their jobs, while the safest practice areas will include employment, litigation, distressed assets, restructuring and bankruptcy. 

The in-house side will see similar patterns and mentality. The financial crisis will trickle along the food chain to slow down many industries including automotive, shipping, and high-tech.  Some in-house openings will emerge, especially for mid- to senior-level inhouse counsel with a high degree of independence. The market will further localise to hire more local talent, partly as an attempt to reduce costs on top of being more effective.

It will be more a buyer's market in 2009, so it will be unrealistic to expect any salary hikes. Candidates will set their eyes more on guaranteed payment, rather on target bonuses or long-term incentives when company performance is a big question mark. Candidates will be more cautious when switching jobs, though some would actively look for a change if they happen to be in a precarious industry.

One uncertainty, though, would be to what extent MNCs would turn to China's markets for a solution when their home markets are experiencing larger troubles. It is very likely that many more will come to this market, as a better option among other choices.  General counsel will need to be prepared for more hands-on work when their applications for headcount in 2009 are frustrated.

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